Jayalalitha’s Sentencing Makes Room for Political Revival

Oct 01, 2014 Tushita Politics 0

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When a special court in Bangalore convicted AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa, she became the first Indian Chief Minister in office to be convicted under Prevention of Corruption Act. The momentous verdict has dethroned a popularly elected Chief Minister and has injected an element of uncertainty into Tamil Nadu politics.

The judge found her guilty under Section 13(1) (e) of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988, and 120 B of the Indian Penal Code. The sentence was pronounced under Section 13(2) of the Act, which states:

(2) Any public servant who commits criminal misconduct shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which shall be not less than one year but which may extend to seven years and shall also be liable to fine.

The judgement has therefore put her behind the bars for four years until a higher court grants her relief, forced her out of electoral contests for 10 years and slapped a fine of Rs. 100 crore on her.

The former CM’s supporters buttress her claim that the case is politically motivated and hope that a higher court will overturn the conviction. But another hurdle in this direction is that in line with recent Supreme Court judgments, the appellate courts do not admit appeal petitions in cases where a prison sentence and a fine is pronounced by a trial court unless the fine amount is paid. In this case, Jayalalithaa will have to move a separate petition to seek exemption from that clause stating that the fine amount was onerous, while the total disproportionate assets was worth Rs. 66.65 crore.

It is clear that the legal battle will go a long way and meanwhile O. Panneerselvam, a trusted aide and an uncharismatic leader, will head the state cabinet. But if the lawyers fail to get the conviction reversed and the sentence stayed, doesn’t that leave the party vulnerable? What if Jayalalithaa doesn’t win a reprieve before 2016, when the state goes for polls? Would the party still remain intact?

It is highly doubtable that Jayalalithaa, with the blot of corruption will still be able to keep her electorate base together and win a fresh mandate for Panneerselvam’s government. Consequently, the party is likely to fall apart if the 66-year-old leader stays away from the elections for a decade.

Hard-earned image:

The public image of Jayalalithaa still remains untainted and the over-all mood has still not turned against her. In the general elections held in May, Jayalalithaa triumphed 37 out of 39 seats. Even though a divided opposition was a huge helping factor, her victory was mostly credited to her policies and style of governance by the party.

After the death of AIADMK’s founder-leader and her mentor, MGR, Jayalalithaa not only took control but transformed the party into an extension of her image. Her governance has an acquired brand value today, as she branded it in her own name.

The brand lingo:

Though there is nothing new to populist governance, this if the first time that any leader has branded and appropriated populist schemes. Be if food, water, cement, or anything, the brand ‘Amma’ meets the expectations of the public by delivering inexpensive goods and services, with women as the main target group.

Jayalalithaa’s brand also acquired a subtle Tamil sub-nationalist tinge by seeking action against Colombo for genocide. The branding helped her in her lavish campaign for the general election, with her supporters portrayed her as the PM-in-waiting.

On the other hand, DKM chief, M. Karunanidhi was burdened the involvement of his family in the 2G scam and therefore couldn’t match her high-voltage campaign.

In contrast to Jayalalithaa’s portrayal as a decisive leader, Karunanidhi was seen as an ageing patriarch presiding over a squabbling family.

Silence of the opposition:

Anyhow, the opposition and rival, Karunanidhi, who otherwise leaves no chance to depict his political agility by quickly responding to political developments, is yet to comment on Jayalalithaa’s conviction.

Though the DMK cadres were seen celebrating the court orders, maybe the party leadership sees the verdict as a double-edged sword. The verdict has obviously raised the bar high in the fight against the corruption by convicting people holding high office.

Issuing statements in praise for the court’s decision against corruption could backfire for DMK since a special court is set to frame charges in the 2G case against Karunanidhi’s daughter, Kanimozhi, and wife, Dayalu Ammal, on October 20.

The power struggle remains ambiguous:

Both the DMK and the AIADMK stand the possibility to get driven into a corner if their leaders fail to get relief from the courts.

During her absence from the seat of Chief Minister, Amma’s government could lose its charm. Even worse, if the higher courts go on endorsing her conviction, Jayalalithaa would find it hard to prove herself innocent among the voters.

But crumbling of AIADMK’s support base doesn’t mean that the voters will flock to the DMK. In fact, the social constituencies of the AIADMK and the BJP overlap. Going by the Lok Sabha election, DMDK, the BJP, the MDMK, the PMK and a few other small outfits, had together swept over 18 per cent of the votes and two seats. This is the third front in Tamil Nadu.

Though the front was led by Vijayakanth, the votes were sought in the name of and for Narendra Modi. The reason he got to be the face of the campaign was that the BJP lacks a leader with a pan-Tamil Nadu appeal. Therefore, the third front, could be the benefit from the situation, if it arises and if the group stays close packed.

The tussle in front of the public:

Experts are of the view that since the traditional Dravidian parties are bartering ideology for power the BJP has more acceptance in the state than ever before. In the whole storm, the public remains the ultimate judge to decide its own fate. What would it now prefer?

As far as the loyalty of O. Panneerselvam is concerned, it is time tested and well proven. In 2001, when Jayalalithaa was ordered by the Supreme Court to step down from the post of Chief Minister after being convicted in the TANSI land deal cases and sentenced to two years in prison a year before, then also it was O. Panneerselvam, a junior minister then, who was sworn in as the Chief Minister until Jayalalithaa resumed the seat.

But does having him at the helm means the same as having Jayalalithaa herself at the position? Would DMK’s less credible leadership become a more comfortable option for the masses? Or would the third front jump into the picture now? The political destiny of the state remains in the hands of the public.

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• aama, indian politcis, Jayalalitha, Jayalalitha in jail, politics

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